Decoding the Market Rollercoaster

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1044. Alright folks, welcome back to Spy Trader! It's your pal, Penny Pincher, here with you. And hey, it's 6 am on Tuesday, March 25th, 2025, Pacific time, so let's dive right into what's shaking up the market. What's a banker's favorite wrestling move? The fiscal hold. Get it? Anyway... The market's been on a rollercoaster, hasn't it? We saw a pretty sweet rally recently, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all jumping up. On Monday, March 24th the Dow climbed 1.42%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.76%, and the Nasdaq surged 2.27%. A lot of this good mood comes from whispers that the Trump administration might be easing up on those reciprocal tariffs everyone's been sweating about. Remember that dip we had in early March? Stocks took a nosedive, dropping about 10% because everyone was nervous about the tariffs and the economy. So, this rally is basically digging us out of that hole. Even with the recent rally, the US500 is still down 2.07% since the beginning of the year, so don't go spending those profits just yet! Now, let's talk sectors. Tech's been leading the charge. Tesla had a wild ride, shooting up 12% after Elon Musk got everyone hyped about selfdriving and robots, plus the smart drivingassistance feature may be available in China soon. Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta all saw some love too. Chip stocks like AMD and NXP Semiconductors also hopped on the bandwagon. The consumer discretionary and staples sectors have also been showing some strength, along with energy and real estate. On the flip side, earlier in March, tech was dragging its feet, and over the last month, consumer discretionary, communications, and IT haven't been top performers. The main thing moving the market is still those darn tariffs. Any hint of a change in policy sends investors into a frenzy. Also, the Fed decided to sit tight on interest rates, waiting to see what happens with the tariffs. In other news, Super Micro Computer, or SMCI, is still hot because everyone's going nuts for AI infrastructure. 23andMe, well, not so good – they filed for bankruptcy and the CEO bounced. And StubHub's trying to go public with an IPO. Looking at the bigger picture, the US economy was cooking last year, but it might be slowing down a bit this year. The OECD thinks GDP growth will cool off from 2.2% this year to 1.6% next year. Inflation's still hanging around, and while it's supposed to ease up a bit, it might still be higher than what central banks want. The Fed's guessing unemployment will be around 4.4% this year and 4.3% for the next couple of years. People are feeling a little shaky about the economy, especially with those tariffs looming. The US had a record trade deficit in January. And the OECD thinks global growth will slow down a smidge too, thanks to those trade barriers and general uncertainty. So, what should you do with all this info? First, keep your eyes glued to any tariff news – that's the big kahuna right now. Maybe spread your bets around different sectors, just in case things get bumpy. And keep an eye on those economic numbers – GDP, inflation, the whole shebang. I'd be looking at value stocks. Also, maybe peek at global stocks, especially in Europe. And remember, buckle up, because it might be a wild ride! Consider using stoploss orders just in case. Now, I'm just a humble podcast host, not a financial advisor, so don't go blaming me if things go south! This is just my take based on what's happening right now. Talk to a real pro before making any big moves. That's all for today, folks! Stay tuned for the next Spy Trader update. Happy trading!