Market Mayhem: Navigating Geopolitics and Economic Headwinds

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1244. What's crackin' traders, it's your pal Finny the Fox back in the Spy Trader studio! It's 12 pm on Tuesday, June 17th, 2025, Pacific time, and boy oh boy, the market's giving us a run for our money today. Let's dive into what's making the market tick. First off, the US500 is down 0.46% today, sitting at 6005 points. Don't get too worried though, we're still up 0.70% over the last month and a solid 9.44% higher than this time last year. But, you know, some lingering concerns are floating around. Turns out, investors are a bit spooked by weaker retail spending and all this geopolitical hullabaloo. Speaking of hullabaloo, things are tense with the conflict between Israel and Iran. President Trump even peaced out early from the G7 summit to deal with it. Adds a little extra spice to the market, doesn't it? The Fed's also having a powwow, their twoday monetary policy meeting. Word on the street is they're gonna hold steady on interest rates, but we'll see. On the economic front, retail sales took a bigger hit than expected in May. Seems like those tariffs are biting into our wallets. And get this, industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.2% last month. Not great, Bob! Now, it's not all doom and gloom. We did get some good news on the trade front with China, with the US easing up on some tariffs. That's giving the economic outlook a bit of a boost. The G7 summit, though? Didn't really give us much direction on smoothing out trade issues. As for sectors, most of them are in the red today. Healthcare and telecom are taking the biggest hits. Energy stocks are the exception, probably because oil prices are climbing with all the tension in the Middle East. Tech stocks are down, but chip stocks are showing some fight, especially Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD. They're making some moves! And those aerospace and defense stocks that were soaring? They're coming back down to earth now. Macrowise, the US economy is still expected to grow, maybe around 1.3% to 1.5% this year. Inflation is still a worry, especially with those tariffs potentially bumping up prices. The job market is hanging in there, with unemployment around 4.2%. But consumer spending might slow down as those tariffs hit our pocketbooks. Oh, and the trade deficit in April? It was $61.6 billion, which is actually a bit better than March. Companywise, Enphase Energy and First Solar are having a rough day. On the flip side, Jabil is partying after reporting some killer quarterly profits. And Verve Therapeutics? They're through the roof after Eli Lilly announced they're buying them! Now, what's the smart money saying? Trading Economics thinks the US Stock Market Index will be at 5941.70 by the end of this quarter and 5837.10 in a year. Charles Schwab is playing it cautious because of all the geopolitical craziness. Alright, so what should we do with all this info? Here's Finny's take: First, diversify! Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Spread 'em around different sectors to cushion the blow. Second, keep an eye on the Middle East. All that drama can send oil prices and the market into a frenzy. Third, look for quality investments. When the market's wobbly, it's a good time to snag solid companies at a discount. Fourth, think about rotating sectors. Maybe underweight those that are sensitive to tariffs or economic slowdowns, and consider overweighting those that could benefit from higher oil prices or more defense spending. Fifth, listen to what the Fed's saying. Their interest rate decisions can move mountains. And finally, stay in it for the long haul. Don't panic and make rash decisions based on shortterm ups and downs. Remember, this is just my take on things. I'm just a financial fox, not a fortune teller. Always do your own research and talk to a real financial advisor before making any big moves. That's all for today's Spy Trader. Finny the Fox, signing off!