Market Mayhem: Tariffs, Tech, and Trepidation

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1161. Hey there, Spy Traders! It's your pal, Wacky Waluigi, coming at you live from my pineapple under the sea! It's 12 pm on Tuesday, May 13th, 2025, Pacific time, and boy oh boy, do we have a wild market to unpack. Buckle up, buttercups! So, what's the dealio? Well, the US stock market has been doing the chacha, mostly heading south. Since the beginning of the year, the US500 is down 0.82%. Remember those Trump tariffs from early April? Total chaos! Some were even calling it a stock market crash. BUT! On Monday, May 12th, we saw a surge because the US and China decided to chill out on the tariffs for a bit. The Dow jumped almost 3%, the S&P 500 climbed over 3%, and Nasdaq skyrocketed over 4%! Now, let's talk sectors. First quarter of 2025? Ouch, S&P 500 took a 4.6% hit. Early in the year, energy was poppin' thanks to natural gas, up 9.3%. Healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities were also holding their own. But consumer discretionary? Yikes! Down 14%. Tech got hammered too, with Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA taking a nosedive. Zooming into April, things were mostly red. Energy was the worst, down almost 14% because of oil prices. Healthcare stumbled because of UnitedHealth Group. Tech was the best of the worst, up almost 2%, while consumer staples barely squeaked out a gain. So, what's causing all this? Those Trump tariffs, for starters, causing panic and uncertainty. Then there's the bond market selloff, meaning investors are sideeyeing US fiscal policy. The Fed's probably gonna keep things steady with interest rates. And here's the kicker: the US economy is slowing down, with a growing chance of a recession. Plus, inflation is expected to rise and consumer confidence is in the toilet. Even businesses are losing their sunny disposition. GDP growth is slowing, recession risk is up with some saying there's a 4045% chance in the next year, inflation is gonna hit 4% soon, unemployment is gonna rise, and people are buying less stuff. Companywise, NRG Energy is struttin' after great earnings and buying up natural gas assets. Tesla? A rollercoaster as usual. And UnitedHealth Group got smacked after missing earnings targets. So, what's a Wacky Waluigi to recommend? Be CAREFUL out there! The market's more jumpy than a caffeinated kangaroo. Diversify, diversify, diversify! Spread your bets around. Think about moving into safer sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities. Value stocks might be a good shout too. Manage your risk! Set stoplosses to protect yourself. Keep an eye on those policy changes and economic reports. Play the long game and don't panic sell. Also, the potential impact of AI could lead to longer or stronger stock market rally even though there are short term concerns. And maybe consider marketweight stocks overall but overweight value and core. Remember, I'm just a wacky dude with a microphone, not a financial advisor. Do your own homework before making any moves. That's all for today, folks! Stay wacky!