Market Movers: Earnings, Trade, and the Fed

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1121. Hey there, Spy Traders! It's your pal, Penny Pincher, here, bright and early – well, 6 am to be exact – on Friday, April 25th, 2025, Pacific Time. Time to dive into what's moving the market. Alright, let's get the headlines. The stock market is feeling pretty good right now, building on a threeday rally. The Dow closed at 40,093, up over 1%, the NASDAQ jumped almost 3% to 17,166, and the S&P 500 is sitting pretty at 5,484, up over 2%. What's fueling this party? Seems like strong earnings from companies like Alphabet, that's Google's parent, are making investors happy, along with some chatter about the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates as early as June. Tech stocks are really leading the charge right now, along with Consumer Discretionary and Industrials. Consumer Staples, though, not so much. On the earnings front, most companies are beating expectations, especially banks thanks to strong trading revenue. Alphabet's doing great with search and advertising, but Intel's forecast disappointed, sending their stock down after hours. Trade is still a big question mark. The Treasury Secretary said the trade war with China isn't sustainable. And get this, Beijing might be thinking about easing up on tariffs on some US goods. On the Fed front, some are suggesting a rate cut could come in June if the economy slows down, although they left rates unchanged in March. Now, for the nittygritty. While the stock market's doing a jig, some economists are tapping the brakes. Vanguard and EY both lowered their GDP growth forecasts for the year, to around 1% or a little above. Seems like the economy might be slowing down a bit. Tariffs are also pushing prices up. Vanguard also thinks inflation might hit around 4% this year, and unemployment could creep up to around 5%. Consumers might start tightening their belts a bit. Apparently, there was a rush to buy stuff in March to beat those tariff hikes. So, what's Penny Pincher's take on all this? The market's feeling good, but there are some clouds on the horizon. I'd say overweight those tech stocks while they're hot. Be careful with Consumer Staples. Most importantly, don't put all your eggs in one basket – diversification is your friend! Keep a close eye on those trade talks and what the Fed's up to. Given all the uncertainty about tariffs and a possible slowdown, maybe consider playing a little defense in both your stock and bond picks. You know, safer bets. And before I forget, What did the stock say to its investor? "Thanks for holding on to me!" Remember, I'm just a funny podcast host and not a financial advisor. This is just my take on things, so chat with a pro before making any big moves. Until next time, happy trading!