Market Rebound: Navigating Volatility

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1127. Hey there, stock jockeys! It's your pal, Penny Pincher, comin' at ya live from the Spy Trader podcast. It's 12 pm on Monday, April 28th, 2025, Pacific time, and we're diving headfirst into the market madness. What do you call a sad currency? A blue dollar. Alright, let's get down to brass tacks. The market's been a bit of a rollercoaster lately, but there's light at the end of the tunnel... maybe. First up, the big picture: We've seen a bit of a rebound recently, with the S&P 500 climbing about 10% since April 8th. This is largely thanks to easing trade tensions. The U.S. seems to be softening its stance on tariffs with China, and China might exempt some U.S. goods from tariffs too. However, analysts are saying we should expect the market to be rangebound with volatility before returning to early 2025 levels. Now, let's talk indexes. As of last Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow were still down for April, but the Nasdaq was hanging in there, slightly up. Today, Monday, we're seeing a bit of a dip. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down about 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and the Dow's also slipping. Yeartodate, the US500 is down 6.72%. Sectorwise, consumer discretionary and tech stocks have been leading the pack, which tells us folks are feeling a little riskon. There might be some opportunities in healthcare and financials too. Energy and healthcare sectors are showing promise, outperforming after a lackluster 2024. Right now sector ratings are 'Marketperform' so think broader diversification. On the macro front, economists are saying that 2.5%3.5% GDP growth is healthy. Inflation eased a bit in February but has been trending upward since last September. Some consumerfacing companies are warning about a potential slowdown in consumer spending due to all the uncertainty. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady. The market is pricing in one rate cut this year, while economists expect the Fed to pause altogether in 2025. Earnings season is in full swing, and get this: 75% of companies are reporting earnings above estimates, surprising positively by 10% compared to the 10year average. Six of the Magnificent Seven reported earnings between April 21 and May 2. Tesla reported firstquarter earnings after market close today, and Alphabet's up on deck for Thursday. Keep an eye on Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, they release results this week. It's worth noting that earnings growth estimates for the full year have declined from 14% in January to 9.5% currently. In deal news, Merck KGaA is buying SpringWorks Therapeutics for almost $4 billion, and DoorDash is making a play for Deliveroo. Now for some specific stock shoutouts: Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than 3.5% today because of a report that Huawei is working on a rival AI chip. Intel (INTC) is bucking the trend, up 2% ahead of an event. For Meta Platforms (META), watch those key support levels around $482 and $452, and resistance levels near $588 and $632. Domino's Pizza (DPZ) is slipping after reporting weakerthanexpected revenue and U.S. samestore sales. Alright, time for Penny's Pinpointing Picks! Given all of this hullabaloo, I am going to recommend: Think about diversifying your portfolio with international equities. Keep an eye on the healthcare and financial sectors for potential opportunities. Stay glued to trade negotiations and policy changes because they can really shake things up. Pay attention to GDP growth, inflation, and employment figures. Consider rebalancing your portfolio to reduce exposure to the most concentrated and vulnerable parts of the market. Focus on your own longterm investment goals and financial situation. Disclaimer time! I am just your goofy podcast host, Penny Pincher, not a financial advisor. This is all based on the information we have as of today, April 28th, 2025, and things can change faster than you can say 'stock split'. Consult a real financial pro before making any big moves. Until next time, keep your eye on the prize and your hand on that buy button. Penny Pincher, out!