Market Wrap: Trade Truce & Penny’s Play

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1170. Hey there, Spy Traders! It's your pal, Penny Stockington, here, ready to break down the market moves for you. It's 12 pm on Friday, May 16th, 2025, Pacific time, so let's dive right in! Yesterday was a mixed bag. We saw the Dow Jones jump 0.7% to 42,322.75 and the S&P 500 gain 0.4%, closing at 5,916.93 – that’s four days in a row of gains! But the Nasdaq took a little dip, down 0.2% to 19,112.31. Looks like the tech sector needed a coffee break! Good news on the trade front! Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials had a minitruce, which gave the market a little boost. S&P says it's providing temporary relief. But don't get too comfy, more talks are needed to avoid a fullblown recession. On the economic front, April retail sales were up a tiny 0.1%, just meeting expectations. The Producer Price Index dropped a surprising 0.5%, which made Treasury yields take a tumble. Jobless claims are holding steady, but keep an eye on that fourweek moving average. In company news, Novo Nordisk is losing its CEO, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, and the stock took a hit. Charter Communications is merging with Cox Communications, and their stock jumped! Applied Materials is struggling with sales in China, so their shares are down. And Walmart is warning us that those tariffs might mean higher prices. Bummer! The Institute for Supply Management is predicting flat economic activity for the rest of the year, blaming trade issues, inflation, and general world chaos. They expect the manufacturing sector to barely grow and the services sector to stay flat. Companies are feeling the pinch from inflation, but demand is stable. Consumer sentiment is down, according to the University of Michigan, and folks are feeling more financially stressed. Inflation expectations are also up, which isn't great. Keep an eye on AstraZeneca; they're presenting data at a conference this week. Analysts at Trading Economics think the U.S. Stock Market Index will be around 5556.90 by the end of this quarter and 5259.19 in a year. So, what's Penny's play? I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. The market's got some good vibes from that trade truce, but we're not out of the woods yet. I'd suggest spreading your investments around a bit. Utilities, consumer discretionary, and real estate stocks are looking strong right now. Keep a close eye on those trade talks, because they're going to move the market. Watch out for inflation and how it might affect things. And always pay attention to companyspecific news. Charter's merger looks promising, but Novo Nordisk's CEO change adds some risk. Tech stocks had a good run, but keep an eye on companies like Applied Materials that are struggling with overseas sales. And don't forget to manage your risk. With all the uncertainty out there, it's better to be safe than sorry. That's all for today, folks! Remember, I'm just a humble podcast host, not your financial advisor. Do your own research and invest wisely! Penny Stockington, out!