Midday Market Mixed Bag

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1148. Hey everyone, it's your pal Barry Bonds Trader, here with your midday Spy Trader podcast. It's 12 pm on Wednesday, May 7th, 2025, Pacific time, and let's dive into what's moving the markets today. So, picture this: The stock market's having a bit of an identity crisis. Some sectors are up, some are down, and overall it's a mixed bag out there. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are taking a little dip, while the Dow is trying to climb higher. A lot of it boils down to everyone watching the trade talks like hawks, especially what's happening between the U.S. and China. All this uncertainty is causing some companies to get a little shy about their financial forecasts. Speaking of nervous, everyone's waiting to hear from the Federal Reserve, who are expected to hold rates steady for now. We're all ears to see what Chairman Powell has to say about inflation and those pesky tariffs. Now, let's break down the sectors. Utilities and energy stocks were shining yesterday, being among the few showing gains. Tech, however, is feeling a bit of a slump with some of the big names dragging down the broader indices. Consumer discretionary is having a rough year, down over 10% so far. Communication services aren't doing great either, down about 2%. In news, those U.S. and China trade talks are kicking off with officials meeting in Switzerland this weekend. Fingers crossed for some good news. Earnings season is still rolling, with most companies having reported. A lot of them are beating expectations, but here's the catch: future earnings estimates are getting lowered because of those tariffs. It's a bit of a Debbie Downer situation. On the economic front, the U.S. trade deficit hit a record high in March. Ouch. Preliminary numbers show the economy actually shrank in the first quarter, mostly because of more imports and less spending by us consumers. But hey, the job market is still looking pretty good, even if some of the past numbers got revised down a bit. All this has folks worrying about stagflation – that's slow growth with rising prices. No one wants that! The U.S. economy is expected to slow down this year, and inflation is likely to stay above the Fed's 2% target. Tariffs could make that even worse. Okay, let's talk companies. Disney (DIS) got a nice bump after reporting some stellar earnings and streaming subscriber numbers. Meanwhile, Ford (F) had decent earnings but then pulled their 2025 guidance, blaming tariffs. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) initially jumped on strong earnings thanks to AI demand, but then cooled off a bit. And Marvell Technology (MRVL)? Ouch, their shares tanked after cutting their revenue forecast and postponing their investor day, all because of, you guessed it, economic uncertainty. Why did the stock market analyst bring a ladder to work? Because they heard the tech sector was going up, but also that it might be due for a correction – so they wanted to be ready to climb out or climb in depending on how the trade talks with China went. As the Federal Reserve held rates steady and earnings season provided some surprises, the market had a mixed day, much like trying to pick the right rung on that ladder. So, what's the takeaway? Be careful out there. Trade tensions are a big deal, and the Fed's next move is anyone's guess. While some companies are doing well, the overall outlook is a bit cloudy. My advice? Play it safe. Diversify your investments, keep an eye on those trade talks, and stick with companies that are strong and can weather the storm. Think about defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples. That's it for today folks. Barry Bonds Trader, signing off!