Navigating Choppy Waters

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1045. Hey everyone, it's your pal Penny Pincher here, and welcome to Spy Trader! It's 12 pm on Tuesday, March 25th, 2025, Pacific Time, and things are, well, mixed out there in the market. What's an investor's favorite day? Pay Day. Let's dive into today's news, insights, and maybe, just maybe, a little bit of profitmaking. First up, we've seen US stocks try to recover after that 10% dip earlier in March – you know, the one that everyone called a 'correction.' Good news is that we're up from that low, but bad news, the S&P 500 is still about 6% below its alltime high. Seems like the market's swinging on the hopes that President Trump's tariff plans might not be as drastic as everyone initially feared. Looking at the indexes, the S&P 500 is mostly unchanged this afternoon, after jumping 1.8% yesterday. The Dow is down just a hair, about 0.1%, while the Nasdaq is showing a little pep with a 0.3% gain. Fox Business is keeping an eye on financials and health care sectors, so check them out for live updates. Now, let's dig into some specific news. Trump Media & Technology Group had a nice bump after announcing a deal with Crypto.com to launch 'AmericaFirst' investment funds. On the flip side, nuclear energy startup Oklo saw its shares tumble after posting a biggerthanexpected loss for 2024. Tesla's sales in Europe keep sliding, and UniFirst shares took a hit because Cintas called off the acquisition talks. KB Home also dropped after lowering their revenue forecast for the year. All of this is happening against a backdrop of some shaky economic data. Consumer confidence took a bigger hit than expected, and some worry that consumer expectations are signaling a possible recession. Investors are also sweating about those tariffs potentially reigniting inflation and messing up economic growth. We've got the Fed's preferred inflation measure coming out on Friday, so keep an eye on that. Oh, and GDP growth slowed down in Q4, and folks are starting to lower their GDP forecasts for 2025. The market is really sensitive to these tariff headlines, and consumer confidence is definitely a worry. Inflation could become a problem if these tariffs stick around, which might force the Fed's hand. We're seeing mixed signals, but overall, a bit of caution is warranted here. Alright, let's talk about what to do with all this information. Number one, stay diversified! Don't put all your eggs in one basket, especially with all this uncertainty. Secondly, be careful with growth stocks, especially tech, because they can be sensitive to tariff stuff. Maybe consider trimming those positions if they're a big chunk of your portfolio. Now might be a good time to look at value stocks, which may have been overlooked during the market's crazy runup. Pay attention to those economic reports coming out, especially inflation data and what the Fed says. For those who don't like risk, think about moving some money into defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples – they tend to hold up better when things get rocky. Remember to check your portfolio regularly and make adjustments as needed. And of course, do your homework before making any moves, and if you're feeling lost, talk to a financial advisor. I'm Penny Pincher, not a financial advisor, so this is all for informational purposes only, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!