The SPY Trader

September: Market Reality Check

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1355.
As September begins, the market faces historical headwinds and mixed economic signals despite a strong August rally. While Q2 GDP grew robustly, persistent inflation and a softening labor market create uncertainty. The Fed is anticipated to cut rates, but high valuations, especially in tech, and geopolitical risks add volatility. The episode advises a balanced, defensive approach with selective growth exposure, highlighting specific ETFs for broad market, growth, defensive, fixed income, and commodity plays to navigate these complex conditions.

September Showdown: Jobs Report & The Fed

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1354.
This episode prepares listeners for September's first trading week, focusing on the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut amid a softening labor market. However, persistent inflation and robust Q2 GDP growth create uncertainty. The August jobs report on Friday is highlighted as the ultimate market tiebreaker. The podcast offers tactical recommendations for navigating a market balancing rate cut optimism for growth stocks against historical September weakness and inflation concerns, including monitoring growth sectors, investing in infrastructure, hedging with gold, and exercising caution in defensive sectors.

Market Peaks and Policy Shifts

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1353.
The market experienced a rollercoaster week in late August, reaching record highs midweek before a Friday pullback due to new inflation data. Despite this, August closed with solid monthly gains for major indices. Key drivers included strong GDP revisions and robust earnings from tech, though the sector also saw significant declines on Friday led by Nvidia and Dell. Inflation, particularly core PCE, remains above the Fed's 2% target, yet a September interest rate cut is anticipated amidst signs of a cooling labor market. Investment recommendations include diversifying into smallcap and value stocks, closely monitoring Fed policy, strategic sector selection (caution with tech, consider industrials and healthcare), and using gold as a hedge against volatility.

Market Crossroads: Fed, AI & Tariffs

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1352.
This episode delves into the market's mixed signals, highlighting robust yeartodate stock performance driven by tech and AI, alongside underlying caution from persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, and tariff impacts. It discusses the Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cuts in September, a strong Q2 GDP rebound, and varied sector performances. Investment recommendations include growth in technology, value opportunities in energy, fixed income for stability, and alternative assets like gold and real estate for diversification, advocating a balanced, qualityfocused approach amidst current macro uncertainties.

Record Highs, Strategic Moves

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1351.
The S&P 500 hits new alltime highs, but underlying complexities like slower AI chipset growth for Nvidia, persistent inflation, and a softening labor market suggest a nuanced economic picture. Despite strong M&A activity and Q2 GDP growth, new tariffs and consumer anxiety pose challenges. The episode outlines a balanced investment strategy: capitalizing on cautious tech/AI growth, leveraging industrials, and hedging with defensive sectors and fixed income, all while closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators for adaptable portfolio adjustments.

Market Pulse: Nvidia, Fed Rates, and Trade Tensions

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1350.
The market shows a cautious but resilient tone ahead of Nvidia's pivotal Q2 earnings, which is expected to significantly impact the AI sector and broader tech rally. Federal Reserve Chair Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut in September due to labor market risks, though he hinted at a higher longterm 'neutral' rate. Inflation remains above target, and new trade tariffs add uncertainty. Strong earnings from MongoDB and Okta, along with cyclicals like Healthcare and Energy appearing undervalued, suggest rotation. Diversification is key, with recommendations for gold, value stocks, specific sector ETFs (Healthcare, Energy, Real Estate), cautious tech exposure, and fixed income.

Unpacking the Market: Fed Pivot & Trade Tensions

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1349.
The US stock market shows mixed signals of resilience and caution, with the Dow hitting a new high but futures signaling a lower open. The economy expanded in Q2 2025 but shows an 'economic mirage' due to import drops and plunging investment, while inflation persists. The Federal Reserve is signaling a likely September rate cut, but political interference, including President Trump's actions regarding the Fed and escalating tariffs (on India, China, and ending 'de minimis' exemptions), are unsettling markets. The AI sector faces pressure, but smallcap stocks are outperforming. Nvidia's Q2 earnings report is the week's major event, a key test for the tech sector. Investment recommendations include broad market ETFs (QQQ, SPY, VTI), bonds (AGG, BND) for stability, gold (GLD) as a hedge, and specific stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and EchoStar (SATS) for higher risk tolerance. The market is navigating a landscape of cautious optimism, a dovish Fed, and significant geopolitical and political risks, making diversification key.

Rate Cut Rally: Your Monday Market Playbook

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1348.
On August 25th, 2025, the U.S. stock market is hitting new highs, driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's strong indication of a September interest rate cut. Major indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are up significantly yeartodate, with market volatility plummeting as a 25 basis point cut is now 8090% priced in. While inflation remains above target and the labor market softens, economic growth shows mixed signals. Cyclical sectors such as Real Estate, Energy, Materials, and Financials are leading gains, with Technology and AI stocks also showing strong momentum. Key company news includes NVIDIA's upcoming earnings, a Google Cloud AI deal for Meta and Alphabet, Tesla's rally, and Intel's potential government stake. Trading recommendations focus on increasing exposure to Financials (XLF), Real Estate (VNQ, DHI, LEN), and Materials (XLB) due to anticipated rate cuts and cyclical recovery. The podcast also advises on continued investment in Technology/AI through ETFs like QQQ or XLK, and highgrowth stocks like NVIDIA, Palantir, and Super Micro Computer, while also noting opportunities in undervalued smallcap and value stocks.

Rate Cut Hopes, Nvidia Risks

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1347.
The episode analyzes the market's positive reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish signals at Jackson Hole, suggesting potential September rate cuts. It covers the mixed inflation picture, upcoming crucial economic data like the Core PCE Price Index, and the highly anticipated Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report, which could be a significant market catalyst. Key investment strategies include maintaining broad market exposure, tactically overweighting interestrate sensitive sectors like Real Estate, cautiously managing tech exposure around Nvidia's report, and utilizing fixed income for stability. The outlook anticipates a constructive environment for equities, tempered by economic data and earningsdriven volatility.

Powell’s Pivot: Markets Surge

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1346.
Markets experienced a volatile week, initially declining before surging on Friday following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish speech. Powell signaled a possible interest rate cut at the September meeting, citing job market risks, which spurred broad market gains across the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and small caps. Energy and Real Estate led sector performance, while tech rebounded from earlier losses. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures and a softening labor market, the Fed's pivot suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook. Recommendations include maintaining broad market exposure, overweighting ratesensitive sectors, selective tech, and fixed income for stability, while cautioning against inflation, labor market deterioration, and political volatility.