The SPY Trader

Market Snapshot: Geopolitics & Economic Signals

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1258.
Welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dose of market wisdom! I'm your host, Money Mike, and it's 12 pm on Monday, June 23rd, 2025, Pacific. We've got a lot to unpack from the markets today, so let's dive right in. The US stock market is showing a mixed but generally resilient performance, navigating those ongoing geopolitical tensions and a stable, albeit closely watched, macroeconomic environment. Today, June 23rd, major US stock indices are seeing some nice gains after an initial period of uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and the techheavy Nasdaq Composite have each risen 0.8%. This upward movement comes as stocks are trading at their session highs, signaling a positive shift in investor sentiment during the day. In contrast, last week saw these major indexes largely unchanged as investors closely monitored the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Looking at the yeartodate picture, the S&P 500 has gained just over 2% including dividends in 2025, which is a rebound after a substantial decline earlier in the year. The Nasdaq Composite saw a modest 0.2% increase over the past week. Breaking down the sector performance today, Consumer Discretionary is leading the charge, up 1.45%, followed by Technology, up 0.24%, and Communication Services, up 0.06%. Industrials, Real Estate, and Utilities are relatively flat. On the other side, we're seeing declines in Consumer Staples, down 0.39%, Energy, down 1.10%, Financials, down 0.43%, and Health Care, down 0.78%. Materials also saw a slight dip. Now, yeartodate, valuestyle sectors like Industrials and Utilities have been among the top performers, each rising over 8%. Growth sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary have been lagging so far this year. Let's talk about the big news items. The primary driver of recent market sentiment has been the Middle East conflict. On Saturday, June 21st, the US conducted strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. While initial market reactions were relatively contained, with US stock futures edging higher earlier today, investor sentiment does remain fragile. This caused oil prices to initially surge, with Brent crude up 25% since early June, due to concerns about supply disruptions, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz. However, oil prices later plunged on Monday as news emerged that an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Qatar was thwarted. The unpredictability of this situation and the potential for a sustained increase in oil prices could lead to renewed stagflation fears and complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook, potentially delaying interest rate cuts. We also have some companyspecific movers. Tesla's stock jumped over 9% today after the electric vehicle maker launched its driverless robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. On the flip side, Super Micro Computer, the AI server maker, tumbled nearly 7% after announcing plans to issue 2 billion dollars in convertible bonds. Shares of Novo Nordisk fell more than 5% following the revelation of results from its latest weightloss drug trial. And Goldman Sachs announced the firmwide launch of its GS AI Assistant, a generative AI tool aimed at boosting employee productivity. Looking at the broader macroeconomic picture, the annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May 2025, a slight increase from April's 2.3%, but still below expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.8% in May, holding at 2021 lows. The slight moderation in inflation has been a positive sign. On interest rates, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since December 18th, 2024, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. This 'waitandsee' approach reflects caution amid economic uncertainties. However, Fed officials do anticipate two 25basispoint rate cuts later in 2025. Stable interest rates can encourage consumer and business spending by making borrowing cheaper, which generally boosts stock prices, especially for dividendpaying sectors. And finally, employment. The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in May 2025 for the second consecutive month, remaining within a narrow range since May 2024. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, with employment trending up in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. The current stable unemployment rate suggests a resilient labor market. So, what does this all mean for your money? The US stock market is currently in a state of cautious optimism, influenced by a delicate balance of geopolitical risks and a relatively stable domestic economic picture. First, geopolitical sensitivity and oil prices. The market's immediate response to the US strikes on Iran was less dramatic than some anticipated, suggesting investors might be viewing the conflict as localized or are betting on a quick resolution. However, the volatility in oil prices remains a key concern. A sustained rise in oil, driven by potential supply disruptions, could reignite inflation concerns, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which would negatively impact corporate earnings. Our recommendation here is to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly any impact on oil production and shipping lanes. Consider hedging against potential oil price spikes, or allocate a portion of your portfolio to sectors that traditionally perform well during inflationary periods, such as certain commodityrelated industries, though the Energy sector showed declines today. Second, inflation and interest rate dynamics. Inflation, while slightly up in May, remains relatively contained. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady reflects a cautious stance. The expectation of two rate cuts later in 2025 provides a degree of optimism for future economic growth and corporate profitability, as lower borrowing costs can stimulate spending and investment. Given the Fed's 'waitandsee' approach and the anticipation of future rate cuts, sectors that benefit from lower borrowing costs and increased consumer spending, such as Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate, could see a stronger rebound in the latter half of 2025. Investors might consider accumulating positions in highquality companies within these sectors that have been undervalued due to earlier interest rate concerns. However, be mindful that Consumer Discretionary has lagged yeartodate, suggesting continued sensitivity to economic pressures. Third, a resilient labor market. The stable unemployment rate and continued job gains indicate a healthy underlying labor market. This provides a foundation for sustained consumer spending, which is crucial for corporate revenues. A strong labor market generally supports the broader equity market. Investors might look for opportunities in companies that directly benefit from consistent employment and wage growth. While the overall market looks stable, the slight decline in the labor force participation rate and employmentpopulation ratio in May warrants continued monitoring to ensure sustained economic health. And finally, some sectorspecific considerations. For Technology, while it's a longterm growth driver, recent underperformance and valuation concerns suggest a need for selective investment. Focus on tech companies with strong fundamentals, clear profitability pathways, and sustainable competitive advantages, especially those with innovative solutions in AI or cloud infrastructure that are not solely reliant on speculative growth. For Industrials and Utilities, these 'valuestyle' sectors have performed well yeartodate and tend to be more stable. Utilities also benefit from lower interest rates due to their dividendpaying nature. Consider these sectors for portfolio stability and consistent returns, especially if market volatility persists or if there are unexpected delays in rate cuts. For Energy, its recent decline despite rising oil prices underscores the volatility and geopolitical sensitivity of this sector. Approach the Energy sector with caution due to its high sensitivity to geopolitical events and fluctuating oil prices. While shortterm gains might occur, longterm investments require careful consideration of global supply and demand dynamics and geopolitical stability. To sum it all up, maintain a diversified portfolio across various sectors to mitigate risks. Prioritize companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and proven business models that can weather potential economic uncertainties or geopolitical shocks. While shortterm volatility is evident, the underlying macroeconomic conditions, like stable inflation and employment, and anticipated rate cuts, suggest a potentially supportive environment for longterm equity growth. Avoid impulsive decisions based on daily market swings. And always keep a close eye on inflation data, any shifts in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the evolving situation in the Middle East, as these will be crucial in shaping the market's trajectory in the coming months. That's all for this edition of Spy Trader. I'm Money Mike, reminding you to stay smart and trade well!

Market Morning: The Tug of War

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1257.
What's up, Spy Traders! This is your host, Chip Dip, coming at you live with your early morning market brief. It's 6 am on Monday, June 23rd, 2025, Pacific time, and we're diving into what's moving the markets today. Let's get right into it!The US stock market is navigating a truly complex landscape right now. Last week saw major indices largely mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up slightly on Thursday, closing at 42,206.82, but was down 0.88% for the week. The S&P 500 saw a slight weekly decline of 0.15% but did rebound 0.32% on Thursday to close at 6,000.30. The Nasdaq Composite, which includes many of our favorite tech and growth stocks, managed a modest 0.21% gain for the week, closing at 19,617.70 on Thursday, up 0.37%. As we kick off this Monday morning, US stock futures are inching higher, with Nasdaq futures leading the charge, up 0.28%, suggesting continued strength in the tech sector.Now, let's talk about the big news items. Geopolitical events are definitely driving uncertainty. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has created a real 'riskoff' sentiment. This has sent oil prices surging, naturally raising concerns about supply disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures.Domestically, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee held its interest rates steady at 4.25%4.50% at their June meeting, which was largely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed comfortable with this, given the economy's resilience. Interestingly, the Fed's updated projections still anticipate two rate cuts by the end of 2025, though their forecasts for 2026 were reduced to just one cut. Some Fed officials have even hinted at a potential rate cut as early as July, which has given market sentiment a bit of a boost. Investors are keenly awaiting the Global flash PMIs today, and then the Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE data, next Friday. Chairman Powell's testimony before Congress will also be a key event, and don't forget about the upcoming Russell Reconstitution next Friday, which could create some significant closing auction activity.On the macroeconomic front, inflation remains a key focus. The annual inflation rate for the US was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May 2025, a slight uptick from April's 2.3%, and still above the Fed's 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.8% for the third straight month, with shelter costs being the main driver. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.2% in May, hovering in a narrow range since May of last year. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding estimates, with gains in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. However, the firstquarter 2025 real Gross Domestic Product actually decreased at an annual rate of 0.2%, and May retail sales printed below expectations, showing some softness in spending on building materials and motor vehicles.Looking at sector performance, last week saw financial services leading the pack, up 0.89%, followed closely by energy, up 0.87%. On the flip side, healthcare was the worst performer, down 2.43%, with basic materials also struggling, falling 1.33%. As for individual companies, top performers for the week ending June 20 included EchoStar, Coinbase Global, which saw an impressive 27.14% return, Reddit, Bath & Body Works, and Estée Lauder. Keep an eye out for upcoming earnings reports from big names like Nike, FedEx, and Micron next week.Alright, let's get into the nittygritty of what all this means for your portfolio. The current state of the US stock market is truly a tugofwar between resilient economic fundamentals and elevated geopolitical risks. Our primary immediate concern is that escalating Middle East conflict and its potential ripple effect on global oil supplies. While the market has shown some resilience, the situation is fluid, and any further escalation could lead to increased volatility and inflationary pressures from higher energy costs. This definitely creates a 'waitandsee' environment for us investors.The Federal Reserve's stance is interesting. Holding rates steady, but projecting two cuts later in 2025, signals a belief in the economy's underlying strength while acknowledging the need for potential easing. However, that slight increase in inflation and unemployment expectations in their updated outlook suggests a cautious approach. That 'dot plot' showing fewer cuts in 2026 compared to prior forecasts also hints at a shallower easing path ahead.On inflation, even though the May rate is slightly above the Fed's target, it does indicate sticky price pressures. The Fed is also considering the impact of potential new tariffs here.Economically, we have a mixed picture. A low and steady unemployment rate at 4.2% and continued job gains suggest a healthy labor market. But that contraction in Q1 GDP and weaker retail sales data points to a moderation in economic growth. This mixed bag aligns with the Fed's assessment of a 'resilient' economy that might just be slowing down a bit.The sectoral rotation we're seeing, with financial services and energy outperforming, suggests investors might be favoring sectors that benefit from a stable economy and potentially higher commodity prices due to those geopolitical risks. The underperformance of healthcare and materials could indicate a shortterm shift away from more defensive or commoditydependent sectors. Technology, despite some daily fluctuations, continues to show underlying strength, as evidenced by those Nasdaq futures.So, what's our game plan? Given this analysis, here are some concrete recommendations. First, maintain diversification but consider a slight tilt towards value and energy. With the current geopolitical backdrop and potential for sustained energy prices, an overweight position in the Energy sector makes sense. The Financial Services sector also appears resilient. While technology has shown strength, a balanced approach with some exposure to valueoriented stocks could provide stability in this mixed market, especially as small and midcap indices have shown modest outperformance.Second, you absolutely must monitor geopolitical developments closely. Stay informed about the IsraelIran conflict and any further US involvement, as these events can trigger sudden market shifts and directly impact oil prices. Be prepared for potential volatility.Third, keep a close eye on key economic data. The upcoming PCE data and Federal Reserve officials' commentary will be crucial. A significant deviation in inflation figures or a clearer signal from the Fed regarding the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts could really influence market direction.Fourth, consider companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power. In an environment of persistent inflation, companies with strong balance sheets and the ability to pass on higher costs to consumers are simply better positioned to weather economic shifts.Fifth, reevaluate your fixed income allocation. With the Fed holding rates steady and projecting cuts later in the year, bond yields may see some fluctuations. Assess your bond portfolio's duration and consider laddering strategies to take advantage of potential yield changes.Sixth, review your individual stock holdings. While top gainers like Coinbase showed impressive returns, their valuations should always be carefully scrutinized. Pay attention to companyspecific news, especially upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Nike, FedEx, and Micron, as these can impact not only individual stocks but also their entire sectors.And finally, always, always practice risk management. Given the current uncertainties, employing strategies such as setting stoploss orders or gradually scaling into positions rather than making large, lumpsum investments could be a very prudent approach.That's it for your Monday morning Spy Trader briefing! Stay sharp, stay informed, and I'll catch you next time. Happy trading!

Bearish Winds: The Week Ahead

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1256.
Alright folks, welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dose of market insights and trading strategies. I'm your host, Captain Cashflow, and it's 6 am on Sunday, June 22nd, 2025, Pacific Time. We're getting an early start because the market never truly sleeps, and the week ahead, from June 23rd to the 27th, looks like it's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride. While we're anticipating some modest equity gains over the next year, the immediate forecast for the coming week is leaning 'Slightly Bearish.' Let's dive into why. First up, the big picture. Our economy is in a tricky spot, dealing with slowing growth and persistent inflationary pressures. We saw a contraction in real GDP in the first quarter of 2025, mainly because of a surge in imports ahead of new tariffs. Although we expect a rebound in the second quarter, underlying growth is projected to slow down for the rest of 2025, with the Federal Reserve forecasting just 1.4% real GDP growth for the year. Inflation remains a key concern, with the OECD predicting US inflation to approach 4% by yearend 2025. While recent Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports showed coolerthanexpected inflation, persistent wage pressures and the full impact of a multidecade high average effective tariff rate, currently around 15%, suggest goods prices could still climb. The Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, playing it patient and datadependent. Some officials don't see any rate cuts this year, while others still expect two. Expectations for a July rate cut have actually diminished a bit. A major event this week will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday, June 24th. Investors will be hanging on his every word for clues on the Fed's future monetary policy. Now, let's look at the key economic data hitting the wires this week. On Monday, June 23rd, we'll get the S&P Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports, along with existing home sales. We'll also hear from Federal Reserve Governors Waller and Bowman, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee. Come Thursday, June 26th, we'll get updates on US Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims, plus the Consumer Confidence Index, which is expected to show a decline, possibly hinting at weaker consumer spending. But the big one everyone will be watching for is on Friday, June 27th: the Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE Price Index, and core PCE. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it could really shake up market expectations for future Fed actions. Beyond the numbers, geopolitical tensions are still in play. The ongoing IsraelIran conflict continues to inject uncertainty, and while we've avoided the worstcase scenarios so far, the potential for escalation remains a key risk, influencing things like oil prices. The trade war, especially with China, keeps disrupting supply chains and affecting corporate performance. The 90day tariff pause is set to end on July 9th, which could bring new volatility, even if an extension is on the table. These trade tensions might actually keep the US dollar under pressure, potentially leading to a weaker dollar, which could be a silver lining for US multinational corporations with significant international operations. Looking at recent sector performance, in the week ending June 20th, financial services and energy sectors were pretty resilient, performing well. On the flip side, healthcare and basic materials struggled. Technology stocks have seen some headwinds recently due to tariff uncertainties, but longterm 'mega forces' like Artificial Intelligence are still expected to drive returns, keeping an overweight view on US stocks overall. Earnings season isn't in full swing for the big tech giants, but we do have some notable companies reporting. On Monday, June 23rd, keep an eye on FactSet Research Systems, Commercial Metals Co., and KB Home. Tuesday, June 24th brings FedEx, and analysts are expecting a 'noisy miss' for them due to those tariffrelated volume headwinds. Wednesday, June 25th, Micron Technology is forecast to show strong growth, and we'll also hear from General Mills, Paychex, and Winnebago Industries. And on Thursday, June 26th, Nike is expected to report a significant drop in earnings and revenue, largely because of tariff issues and an oversupplied product line. McCormick & Company and Walgreens Boots Alliance are also on the schedule. These reports could definitely cause some sectorspecific movements, especially for logistics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and retail. So, given this 'Slightly Bearish' nearterm outlook and the expected volatility, we're suggesting a cautious but adaptable approach for the upcoming week. First, keep your eyes glued to those key economic data releases and anything the Fed says. The PCE Index on Friday is huge. A higherthanexpected inflation reading could confirm the Fed's patient stance on rate cuts and make markets nervous. But a significantly lower PCE could spark optimism for earlier cuts. Also, Fed Chair Powell's testimony on Tuesday is a mustlisten for any shifts in their outlook. The PMI and consumer confidence data will also give us realtime insights into economic health. For sectorspecific considerations, with all this uncertainty, consider maintaining exposure to defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare. These tend to be more stable when the economy slows down. The Energy sector might continue to be strong thanks to ongoing Middle East tensions. For tech, while AI is a longterm driver, those shortterm tariff headwinds could create volatility. If you're looking at tech, focus on companies with strong balance sheets and diversified revenue streams that aren't overly reliant on global trade policy. Industrials and Consumer Discretionary companies, especially those with international supply chains or heavy reliance on consumer spending, could face challenges due to tariffs and potentially weakening consumer confidence. FedEx and Nike's earnings will be great bellwethers for these segments. And finally, some general risk management tips. Always maintain a welldiversified portfolio across different asset classes and geographies to spread out your risk. With stocks near alltime highs, some valuations look stretched, so exercise caution and scrutinize valuations before making new investments. And stay super informed on geopolitics and trade. Developments in the Middle East and any news regarding US trade policy, especially as that July 9th tariff pause deadline approaches, can trigger rapid market shifts. In an uncertain environment, focusing on highquality companies with strong fundamentals, stable earnings, and robust balance sheets is often a prudent strategy. That's it for this early morning edition of Spy Trader. Stay nimble out there, and we'll catch you next time!

Market Pulse: Weekly Review

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1255.
Hey there, Spy Traders! Cashflow Charlie here, and it's 6 am on Saturday, June 21st, 2025, Pacific Time. What a week it's been in the markets, folks! We've navigated everything from geopolitical fireworks to the Federal Reserve's latest pronouncements. So grab your favorite morning beverage, because we're about to break down all the action from the past few days. Let's dive right into the market performance. This past week, ending June 20th, saw a bit of a mixed bag. The Morningstar US Market Index slipped slightly, down 0.07%. The S&P 500, our trusty benchmark, edged down 0.15%, marking its second week of modest losses, closing at 5,967.84 on Wednesday and falling again on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite, however, managed a small gain of 0.21% for the week, despite a dip on Thursday. And our old friend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just barely budged, inching up 0.1% for the week. So, pretty much treading water, wouldn't you say? Now, looking at specific sectors, Financial Services had a great run, up 0.89%, with Energy right behind, gaining 0.87%. On the flip side, Healthcare was the weakest, dropping 2.43%, and Basic Materials also struggled, down 1.33%. Interestingly, largecap stocks saw a small loss, while midcap and smallcap stocks actually gained, and growth stocks performed better than value or blend. On the macroeconomic front, geopolitical tensions, especially the IsraelIran conflict, kept us on our toes. Early in the week, stocks dipped as oil prices surged due to supply concerns, but then bounced back a bit when talks of negotiations emerged. By Thursday, President Trump's comment about a twoweek window for a decision on military involvement helped oil prices retreat. This situation is definitely a big influencer. Then we had the Federal Reserve. Their June 2025 FOMC meeting wrapped up on June 18th, and as widely expected, they kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth meeting in a row. They acknowledged solid economic expansion, a low unemployment rate, and a healthy labor market, but noted that inflation remains 'somewhat elevated'. The Fed actually revised down its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and bumped up its core inflation forecast to 3.1%. However, the 'dot plot' still pointed to two quarterpoint rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell highlighted continued growth but also elevated uncertainty. Speaking of data, the May 2025 CPI came in at 2.4% annually, slightly up from April but below forecasts, thanks in part to a 12% yearoveryear drop in gasoline prices. The May jobs report showed 139,000 nonfarm payrolls added, just above expectations, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. But, watch out for those revisions, folks, as March and April job gains were actually reduced by 95,000, hinting at a potential cooldown in the labor market. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% yearoveryear. Other indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and homebuilder confidence all came in weaker than expected on Monday, and the New York Fed Manufacturing Index declined for the fourth month in a row. And let's not forget tariffs. The 2025 tariffs are estimated to raise overall prices by 1.5% in the short run and could cut real GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points this year. They might also increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points and reduce payroll employment by 394,000 by yearend. This is a big deal, especially with May's manufacturing employment showing weakness partly due to these trade tensions. Now for some companyspecific news. Kroger surged almost 10% on Thursday after beating profit estimates and raising its fullyear revenue forecast. CarMax also climbed 6.6% on Thursday, beating profit expectations on higher used auto sales. Advanced Micro Devices, AMD, jumped nearly 9% last Sunday after analyst upgrades. Meta Platforms rose 3% last Sunday on news of paid advertising for WhatsApp. Apple, defying the trend, rose more than 2% on Thursday, and Coinbase also saw a nice 4% gain on Thursday. But it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows. Solar stocks really took a hit on Monday, with Enphase Energy plunging 24%, First Solar down 18%, SunRun plummeting a massive 40%, and SolarEdge Technologies sliding 33%. Ouch! Lennar shares fell 4% on Monday after their profit missed estimates. And Sarepta Therapeutics dropped a whopping 45% last Sunday, hitting a nearly decadelow, due to concerns about a possible serious side effect with their Elevidys treatment, including a reported death. Accenture also fell on Thursday as their quarterly bookings missed analyst estimates. So, what does all this mean for us, Spy Traders? The past few days show a truly complex market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a major wild card, directly hitting energy prices and broader market mood. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady, alongside a more cautious economic outlook, tells us they're still walking a tightrope: inflation is stubborn, even with signs of a cooling labor market. That May jobs report, with its downward revisions, really highlights this cooling trend. The slight uptick in CPI and the Fed's higher inflation forecast underline that price pressures are still very much a concern, made worse by ongoing tariffs. The mixed performance across major indices, with the S&P 500 slightly down but Nasdaq and Dow holding relatively flat, suggests a market trying to figure out these conflicting signals. Sector performance showed a clear rotation: Financial Services and Energy benefiting, possibly from rates and oil volatility respectively, while Healthcare and Basic Materials struggled. And, of course, individual company news, whether it's strong earnings like Kroger or CarMax, or serious operational issues like those seen with Sarepta and the solar industry, continues to drive big stock movements. We're definitely in a 'waitandsee' mode, balancing resilient economic activity against inflation, tariffs, and a super fluid global landscape. Alright, Cashflow Charlie's top recommendations for navigating these waters: First, Stay Diversified and Defensive. With all this uncertainty and mixed economic signals, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Maintaining a diversified portfolio is key. While Healthcare surprisingly underperformed recently, defensive sectors like consumer staples or utilities might be worth a look if volatility sticks around. Healthcare might even present a potential entry point if its fundamentals hold strong after that recent dip. Second, Monitor Geopolitical Developments Closely. The IsraelIran conflict is a huge unknown. Keep a very close eye on any escalations or deescalations. This will continue to directly impact oil prices and overall market sentiment, making the Energy sector particularly sensitive. Third, Evaluate Interest Rate Sensitivity. The Fed held rates, but their projections still hint at future cuts. Financials might continue to do well if rates stay a bit higher for longer, or if economic resilience supports loan growth. On the flip side, interestrate sensitive sectors, like real estate, could face ongoing pressure if borrowing costs remain elevated. Fourth, Focus on Company Fundamentals. With tariffs and inflation impacting corporate outlooks, it's more critical than ever to dig deep into individual company earnings and their future guidance. Kroger and CarMax showed us that strong individual performance can still lead to big gains, even in a tough market. But remember, companies with specific product or operational issues, like Sarepta, can see very sharp declines. Finally, Be Cautious on Highly Valued Growth Stocks, but also Consider Value Opportunities. While the Nasdaq has been resilient, and some tech giants are still flying high, the broader tech and growth sector might face more scrutiny if inflation or slower growth fears intensify. However, companies showing strong innovation, especially in AI like AMD, still attract investor interest. And with the overall US stock market trading at only about a 3% discount to fair value, opportunities in valueoriented investments, or in sectors that have lagged but have strong longterm fundamentals, like possibly healthcare after its recent drop, might be emerging. So, Spy Traders, stay agile, prioritize your fundamental analysis, and keep that portfolio diversified. That's it for this edition of Spy Trader. Until next time, keep those charts green!

Market Headwinds: Strategic Investing

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1254.
Hey everyone, and welcome back to Spy Trader! I'm your host, Chip Dip, and it's 6 pm on Friday, June 20th, 2025, Pacific time. What a whirlwind week it's been in the markets, closing out with some mixed signals. Let's dive right in. The US stock market wrapped up the week with a bit of a split personality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to inch up, posting modest gains for the day and the week. However, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite saw declines today, with the S&P 500 marking its second consecutive weekly drop. Interestingly, small and midcap indices showed a bit more pep in their step. Looking at sectors, it was a mixed bag. Today, Retailing saw a notable gain, while sectors like Hardware, Software, and Healthcare pulled back. Over the year, valuestyle sectors like Industrials and Utilities have been leading the charge, outperforming growth sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. On the news front, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing IsraelIran conflict, continue to keep us on edge, though worstcase scenarios seem to have been avoided for now. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting saw Chair Powell confirm interest rates are holding steady between 5.25% and 5.50%. The market's now leaning towards just two rate cuts this year, possibly starting in September, a step back from earlier, more optimistic projections. There's even some talk of potential stagflation, which is something we're keeping a close eye on. Positive economic data from China offered a small global lift, but concerns about US trade tariffs loom large, threatening higher inflation and potentially slowing down our labor market. We've also seen some companyspecific news, like the cyberattack targeting insurance giant Aflac. Looking at the broader economy, US real GDP dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2025. While inflation eased a bit in April, the Fed has actually raised its inflation forecast, and folks are expecting prices to keep climbing long term. The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth projected to decelerate significantly this year. Now, for some company highlights: Kroger led the S&P 500 gainers today after reporting strongerthanexpected firstquarter profit and sales. CarMax also had some good news with increased earnings and used car sales. Looking ahead, next week brings Global flash PMIs and PCE data, plus Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress. So, what does all this mean for your portfolio? Well, the market's definitely on a cautious footing. Inflation is proving to be pretty sticky, and the Fed's stance of 'higher for longer' on interest rates really puts pressure on growth stocks. Geopolitical uncertainty adds to the shortterm volatility, and the slight dip in GDP, along with forecasts for slower job growth and consumer spending, suggests our economy might be hitting a bit of a 'stall speed.' Plus, those tariffs are a real concern, potentially hurting both your wallet and company profits. We're also seeing a clear shift in investor preference towards more stable, valueoriented companies. So, my concrete recommendations for you, the savvy Spy Trader, are these: First, Favor Quality and Value. In this environment, companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and reasonable valuations are your friends. Think about sectors like Industrials and Utilities; they've been strong performers yeartodate for a reason. Look into established industrial players, stable utility providers, or even certain healthcare and consumer staples companies that can pass on costs. Second, Be Cautious with Highly Valued Growth Stocks, but Monitor for Opportunities. High interest rates can hit growth stocks hard, but the longterm innovation, especially in AI, is still a powerful force. So, avoid the super speculative stuff, but if you see a pullback in established, profitable tech giants with strong cash flow, that might be a chance to dollarcost average into them or diversified tech ETFs. Third, Diversify Geographically. Don't put all your eggs in the US basket. International developed and emerging markets have shown strong performance this year, partly due to factors like fiscal stimulus in Europe and strong Chinese tech. Broad international equity ETFs could be a good play here. Fourth, Monitor Macroeconomic Data and Fed Commentary Closely. The Fed's every move is crucial. Any surprises in inflation data or their outlook could cause big market swings. So, pay attention to those upcoming PCE numbers and Chair Powell's testimony. Finally, Maintain Liquidity and Rebalance Periodically. Keep some cash on hand for emergencies or for those moments when the market throws us a sale. And make sure you're regularly rebalancing your portfolio. It helps keep your investments aligned with your risk tolerance, especially when the market gets choppy. This US market is definitely complex right now, balancing economic resilience with inflation and geopolitical jitters. So, stay smart, stay strategic, and keep those eyes on the prize. That's all for this episode of Spy Trader. I'm Chip Dip, and I'll catch you next time!

Wall Street’s Mixed Signals: Rates, Risks, and Rebalancing

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1253.
Hello, market mavens! This is Captain Cashflow, your friendly neighborhood financial analyst, ready to navigate the currents of the market on another episode of Spy Trader. It's 12 pm on Friday, June 20th, 2025, Pacific time, and we've got quite a bit to unpack from Wall Street. Let's dive right in. The US stock market is showing some truly mixed signals today, a fascinating blend of geopolitical rumblings, shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve, and varied sector performances. Starting with the big picture, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed modest gains, climbing around 0.4% today, though it's still down 0.64% yeartodate. The S&P 500 has also seen slight increases, hovering around 0.2% to 0.32% in recent sessions, despite dipping 0.3% this Friday. The S&P 500 has actually climbed 2.15% over the past month and is up a healthy 9.26% compared to this time last year, though it's down about 7.40% yeartodate from its alltime high in February 2025. The Nasdaq Composite, however, has been a bit more cautious, slipping slightly below flat or showing small gains of around 0.37%. Looking at our sectors today, Consumer Discretionary is up 1.10%, but down 4.74% yeartodate. Consumer Staples is showing strength, up 0.86% daily and 3.51% yeartodate. Energy is modestly up 0.27% today and 1.92% yeartodate. Financials gained 0.43% daily and 4.62% yeartodate. Health Care saw a daily increase of 0.34% but is down 2.85% yeartodate. Industrials are up 0.14% daily and are strong performers yeartodate with 8.46%. Technology has a daily gain of 0.39% and is up 4.57% yeartodate. Materials are down 0.51% daily but up 4.04% yeartodate. Real Estate gained 0.62% daily and 4.49% yeartodate. Communication Services performed well with a daily gain of 1.07% and 7.50% yeartodate, and Utilities are up 0.36% daily and 6.00% yeartodate. It's worth noting that valuestyle sectors like Industrials and Utilities have been among the top performers yeartodate, while growth sectors such as Technology and Consumer Discretionary have lagged a bit. Now, for the headlines that are moving the needle. President Donald Trump's twoweek deadline on a possible USIran conflict has certainly introduced some uncertainty, making investors a bit uneasy about broader Middle East instability and its potential impact on oil prices. Despite this, history often tells us that geopolitical risks, while unnerving, tend to lead to shortlived market weakness, with equities typically recovering in the medium term. On the monetary policy front, hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut by July have been a significant market driver. Fed Governor Chris Waller even hinted at a potential July rate cut after some tame inflation data. However, the Fed's latest 'dot plot' still reflects expectations for two rate cuts this year, with next year's forecasts dialed back to just one. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%4.5% after its June meeting. We're also seeing some shifting tariff policies continuing to impact the economic outlook, potentially pushing up prices and weighing on economic activity. There's an expectation that tariffs might come down in the coming months, but likely remain higher than before the election. Good news for the tech sector though, chip stocks have seen a sharp rebound after a recent slump. And a big market event today, Friday, June 20th, 2025, is a 'triple witching' day, with an estimated over $6 trillion of options expiring, alongside the S&P quarterly rebalance. This can certainly lead to increased volatility, so buckle up! The US stock market is currently in a state of cautious optimism, constantly reacting to a pushandpull between positive economic data and those everpresent geopolitical and policy uncertainties. The slight upward movement in the Dow and S&P 500 suggests some underlying confidence, likely buoyed by the prospect of a Fed rate cut, which could ease financial conditions and stimulate growth. The Fed's continued expectation of two rate cuts this year provides a somewhat dovish signal to the market. However, the Nasdaq's more subdued performance indicates lingering caution, particularly in the tech sector, which is more sensitive to economic uncertainties and interest rate expectations. The rebound in chip stocks offers a glimmer of sectorspecific strength within technology, but the yeartodate underperformance of growth sectors compared to value sectors suggests a rotation of capital as investors seek stability amidst volatility. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, specifically President Trump's deadline regarding Iran, are a significant source of market apprehension. Such events introduce unpredictable elements that can rapidly shift market sentiment and impact sectors like energy due to potential supply disruptions. While historical data suggests shortterm impacts, the current environment is highly sensitive to any escalation. Macroeconomic indicators paint a mixed picture. The slight contraction in Q1 GDP, primarily driven by imports, suggests some underlying softness, though robust consumer spending and investment offer partial offsets. The slowing, but still resilient, labor market and healthy personal income growth provide a foundation for consumer spending, which is a major component of US GDP. However, the anticipated downshift in consumer spending and job growth due to tariff impacts poses a future headwind. On the bright side, inflation appears to be moderating, strengthening the case for potential Fed rate cuts. As for company events, while no single company announcement is causing widespread market swings today, we are seeing ongoing developments. CoreWeave announced new AI cloud software to help AI developers iterate faster, and Amdocs is demonstrating joint AI agent solutions with NVIDIA, showcasing advancements in telcograde AI. DICK'S Sporting Goods is working on an exchange offer related to its anticipated acquisition of Foot Locker, and Meta is partnering with Oakley to launch AIpowered performance glasses. These innovations highlight areas of growth and technological advancement that can drive longterm market performance. Finally, that 'triple witching' and S&P rebalance on June 20th introduce a technical element that could lead to increased trading volume and shortterm volatility, as options expire and index compositions are adjusted. So, Captain Cashflow's concrete recommendations for you, my friends, given these current market conditions, involve a balanced and adaptive approach. First, maintain diversification but consider a tilt towards value and defensive sectors. While tech growth stocks have longterm potential, their recent underperformance and sensitivity to volatility suggest balancing your portfolio with more stable areas. Industrials and Utilities have shown stronger yeartodate performance and tend to be more resilient. Consumer Staples and Healthcare also offer those defensive characteristics. Second, keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and their impact on energy. The USIran situation is a wild card. Any escalation could lead to sharp spikes in oil prices. For investors, this might mean a tactical, shortterm allocation to energy stocks or energyfocused ETFs if tensions escalate, but be ready for pullbacks if things deescalate. Third, stay informed on Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic data. The Fed's stance on interest rates is a primary market driver. Pay attention to inflation reports, employment data, and Fed communications. Understanding their trajectory can help you adjust your portfolio risk. If the Fed signals more aggressive rate cuts, growth stocks might become more attractive. Conversely, if inflation persists, a more cautious stance would be prudent. Fourth, evaluate individual company fundamentals very carefully. Even in a mixed market, strong companies with robust business models, healthy balance sheets, and consistent earnings can outperform. Look for companies with strong competitive advantages, effective debt management, and consistent profitability. Consider leaders in their sectors, especially those showing innovation in areas like AI. Lastly, be prepared for increased volatility, especially around market events like today. Days with triple witching and index rebalances can lead to unpredictable shortterm price swings. For longterm investors, these are typically noise, so avoid impulsive decisions. For shorterterm traders, understanding these dynamics is crucial, but requires advanced strategies and risk management, like setting stoploss orders. That's all for this episode of Spy Trader! Stay smart, stay diversified, and I'll catch you on the next market update. Happy trading!

Market Watch: Geopolitics & Growth

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1252.
Welcome to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the choppy waters of the stock market! I'm your host, Bucky Bucks, and it's 6 am on Friday, June 20th, 2025, Pacific time. We've got a lot to unpack this morning, so let's dive right in to get you prepped for the trading day!The US stock market is showing a really mixed bag as of late. Yesterday, June 19th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down a slight 0.10% at 42,171.66. The Nasdaq Composite, however, managed a small gain, up 0.13% to 19,546.27. The S&P 500 saw a marginal decline of 0.03%, closing at 5,980.87. Looking at the broader US500 index this morning, we've seen it rise to between 6020 and 6025 points, gaining about 0.65% to 0.74% from the previous session. Over the last month, this index has climbed a solid 3.00% to 3.09%, and it's up a substantial 10.16% to 10.26% compared to this time last year.Sector performance on June 19th was quite varied. We saw positive moves in Real Estate, up 0.20%; Utilities, up 0.27%; Communication Services, up 0.08%; and Technology, gaining 0.15%. On the flip side, Consumer Staples, Energy, Health Care, Industrials, and Materials all experienced slight declines. Financials and Consumer Discretionary remained effectively flat.Yeartodate, Industrials, Communication Services, and Utilities have been strong performers, while Consumer Discretionary and Health Care have seen some declines.Now, for the big headlines impacting the market. Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran creating unease for investors. There are reports that President Trump is considering a potential military strike on Iran, which is certainly adding to the uncertainty. President Trump's new tariffs and trade policies are also a key factor; the Federal Reserve is closely watching how these will impact inflation, with expectations of nearterm price hikes for consumers. This has definitely contributed to market volatility.On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50% at its June 2025 meeting, as widely expected. The FOMC's updated projections still suggest two rate cuts are coming in 2025, but the forecast for 2026 was reduced to just one cut. The Fed is taking a cautious approach, waiting for more data on inflation and the economic impact of those tariffs before making further moves.In company specific news, Marvell Technology, ticker MRVL, saw a jump of over 7% on June 18th, driven by optimism around its AI growth pipeline after an investor event. IBM, ticker IBM, reached an alltime closing high on June 18th, having gained nearly 30% since the start of 2025, fueled by new software launches and advancements in quantum computing. Other notable movers yesterday included Coinbase Global, COIN, up 16.32%; Caesars Entertainment, CZR, up 4.91%; and Enphase Energy, ENPH, up 4.18%. Looking ahead, we've got big earnings reports next week from companies like Nike, Micron, and FedEx, which will give us more insights into retail demand, the trade war's effects, and semiconductor trends.From a macroeconomic perspective, the annual inflation rate for the US was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May 2025, a slight uptick from April's 2.3%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% in May. Remember, the Fed's target is 2%. The US unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% in May for the second consecutive month, right where experts expected it. Wage gains are still outpacing inflation at around 3.9%, which is good news for consumers. As for economic growth, the US economy actually contracted by 0.20% in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter, marking the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years. However, the GDPNow model estimates for the second quarter are currently projecting a rebound with 3.4% growth. The Federal Reserve has slightly downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from its previous 1.7%, and for 2026 to 1.6%.So, what does all this mean for your money? The current market is really a tugofwar. On one side, we have resilient economic fundamentals: a stable unemployment rate, positive real wage growth, and a projected rebound in Q2 GDP. These factors underpin consumer spending and indicate underlying economic strength. On the other side, we're battling increasing geopolitical and traderelated uncertainties. The Fed's cautious stance, holding rates steady and anticipating only two cuts this year, shows they're prioritizing inflation control amidst these uncertainties, even with a slight GDP growth downgrade for the year.The escalating tensions in the Middle East and the shifting sands of President Trump's tariff policies are creating significant headwinds. These external factors introduce volatility and can lead to sudden market shifts, which we've seen with cautious reactions to news about potential military action or new tariffs.When we look at sector performance, there's a clear preference for both defensive and growthoriented sectors. Technology and Communication Services are showing strength, likely benefiting from ongoing innovation, especially in AI. Utilities and Real Estate, often seen as safer havens, are also showing positive daily performance, perhaps signaling investors seeking stability. Conversely, energy and industrials saw slight declines, likely due to fluctuating oil prices influenced by geopolitical events and broader concerns about global economic growth impacting industrial demand.Considering all this, here are some general recommendations for investors. First, maintain diversification. In this environment of uncertainty and fluctuating data, a welldiversified portfolio across different sectors and asset classes is key to mitigating risk. Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Second, focus on quality and fundamentals. Prioritize companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and robust business models. These companies tend to be more resilient during choppy market waters. The upcoming earnings season will be crucial for assessing individual company performance. Third, keep a very close eye on macroeconomic data. Upcoming inflation reports, like the one due July 15th, employment data, and any communications from the Federal Reserve are critical. Any significant shifts could impact interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment. Fourth, consider defensive sectors. Given the ongoing uncertainties, sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare, which are generally less sensitive to economic cycles, could offer relative stability for your portfolio. Fifth, evaluate growth opportunities very carefully. While technology and communication services have shown strong performance, their valuations need scrutiny. Companies with clear growth drivers, such as advancements in AI, could continue to perform well, but be aware of potential overvaluation. Lastly, stay informed on geopolitical developments and trade policy. These external factors are proving to be significant market movers, so understand how potential escalations or policy changes could impact specific industries and your portfolio. And as always, remember to keep a longterm perspective. Despite shortterm fluctuations and uncertainties, a longterm investment horizon often helps ride out market volatility and achieve your financial goals. That's all for this edition of Spy Trader. I'm Bucky Bucks, and I wish you profitable trading!

Choppy Waters: The Fed, AI, and Your Investments

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1251.
Hello, Spy Traders, and welcome back to the only podcast that makes market moves make sense! I'm your host, Market Maverick Mike, and it's 6 pm on Thursday, June 19th, 2025, Pacific Time. We've got a lot to unpack after a mixed week and a federal holiday, so let's dive right in. The U.S. stock market is heading into Friday after a somewhat choppy week. Before the Juneteenth holiday, on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly by 0.1%, and the S&P 500 was fractionally lower, down 0.03% to 5,980.87 points. However, the techheavy Nasdaq Composite managed to nudge up by 0.13% to 19,546.27 points. Overall, the S&P 500 is still up 8.33% from a year ago, showing some underlying resilience. When we look at sector performance, it's been a tale of two markets. Technology and Communication Services continue to be the stars, largely thanks to the strong demand for artificial intelligence, with companies like Marvell Technology jumping 7% after its Custom AI event and IBM shares hitting an alltime high, up nearly 30% this year. On the flip side, Consumer Discretionary has seen declines, and Health Care has been a bit of a laggard yeartodate, with losses from big names like Eli Lilly and UnitedHealth. The Federal Reserve made headlines on June 18th by keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth straight meeting. They did signal the likelihood of two rate cuts later in 2025, which is a slight increase from their previous projection. But here's the kicker: they also raised their inflation forecast, with core PCE now expected to hit 3.0% by yearend, and they downgraded their GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was clear that inflation remains somewhat elevated, and tariffs could make commodity prices tick higher. On the geopolitical front, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran continues to be a source of market volatility, stirring concerns about crude oil supply. Good news on the trade front, though: there are reports of an agreement reached between the U.S. and China on trade and tariffs in London. Now, let's get into the analysis and what this all means for your portfolio. The market is in a bit of a tugofwar. On one side, we have strong corporate earnings, especially from those big tech players, and expectations of easing monetary policy. On the other, we're facing significant macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. The Fed's 'wait and see' approach, coupled with a split among FOMC members, means the path to lower rates isn't guaranteed and is very much datadependent. The raised inflation forecast and lower GDP projections signal a slowing economy, which could put pressure on corporate earnings outside of the strongest sectors. And let's not forget those geopolitical risks; the Middle East conflict has a track record of sparking market volatility. While the overall market might appear moderately valued, growth stocks are still trading at a premium, implying that a lot of good news has already been priced in for those high flyers. So, what's a savvy Spy Trader to do? Here are our recommendations. First, maintain diversification but consider tilting towards value and defensive sectors. With a slowing economy and persistent inflation, value stocks, which are currently at a discount, could offer more resilience. Think Utilities and certain Consumer Staples. Second, selective exposure to highgrowth tech and AI is still a smart move. Demand for AI is robust, driving earnings for key players. Focus on individual companies with strong balance sheets and clear competitive advantages, not just broadbrush exposure. Third, keep a close eye on geopolitical developments. The IsraelIran conflict can quickly impact energy markets and overall sentiment. Be prepared to adjust if tensions escalate significantly. Fourth, always emphasize quality and strong fundamentals. In uncertain times, companies with solid balance sheets, consistent cash flows, and proven profitability are your best friends. Fifth, don't forget international diversification. International markets have actually been outperforming the S&P 500 yeartodate, so exploring global equity funds could enhance your portfolio diversification. And finally, stay liquid and patient. With volatility likely to continue and the future of monetary policy still somewhat murky, having cash on hand allows you to seize opportunities when market pullbacks occur. Avoid overleveraging, and focus on your longterm investment goals. That's all for today's Spy Trader. Thanks for tuning in, and remember, stay informed, stay diversified, and keep those eyes on the market!

Midday Market Update: Navigating Mixed Signals

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1250.
Hey there, Spy Traders! Market Maverick Max here, bringing you your midday market update. It's 12 pm on Thursday, June 19th, 2025, Pacific time, and we've got a lot to unpack from the financial world. Grab your favorite beverage, because we're diving deep into the movements that matter for your portfolio.The US stock market is showing a real mix of signals today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting around 42,171, down a slight 0.10% from yesterday. Over the last month, it's actually dipped about 1.18%. The S&P 500 is hovering around 5,980, with a modest 0.03% decrease in the last 24 hours, and it's down 0.27% over the past month, though still up a solid 8.24% year over year. Seven of its eleven sectors ended yesterday in the red, which tells you a bit about the cautious mood. On the flip side, our techheavy Nasdaq Composite is showing some strength, up 0.39% today to around 19,546.Looking at the sectors, it's a bit of a mixed bag. Recently, technology and utility stocks have been showing the most gains, while energy and communication sectors have been lagging. Over the year, value sectors like industrials and utilities are up over 8%, outperforming growth sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary. More recently, we've seen Retailing up 1.46% and Automobiles up 0.25% today, while Hardware, Diversified, Metals and Mining, and Software and IT are among those seeing declines.Now for the big headlines shaping these movements. The Federal Reserve, at its June 2025 meeting, kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. This marks the fourth meeting in a row without a change, signaling a careful 'waitandsee' approach. They're definitely keeping an eye on President Trump's policies, especially tariffs, and the potential for those to reignite inflation. The Fed's updated projections now forecast just two rate cuts in 2025, fewer than previous expectations, and they've even downgraded GDP growth forecasts while nudging inflation forecasts higher.Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing IsraelIran conflict in the Middle East, are also creating a 'riskoff' sentiment, pushing investors towards safer assets like the US dollar and gold.On the company front, Coinbase stock recently surged 16% thanks to momentum from a landmark crypto bill. Southwest Airlines is making news by announcing assigned seating options. And the NTSB issued an urgent safety bulletin regarding certain Boeing 737 Max jet engines, which is something to watch.So, what's really driving all this? The Fed's cautious stance is a huge factor. Their decision to hold rates steady shows their concern about stubborn inflation, which, by the way, ticked up slightly to 2.4% in May, still above their 2% target. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held at 2.8% in May, with shelter costs being the main culprit. The Fed's revised forecast, with fewer rate cuts and higher inflation and unemployment projections, suggests a more challenging economic path ahead, maybe even hinting at some stagflationary pressures.Economically, we saw a contraction in US GDP in the first quarter of 2025, shrinking by 0.2%, which was the first decline since early 2022. But, good news is a rebound to around 3% growth is expected in the second quarter, largely due to solid household consumption. The unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.2% in May, showing a resilient labor market where wage gains are actually outpacing inflation, which is great for consumer spending. However, those escalating geopolitical tensions we mentioned are definitely adding to market volatility, making some investors pull back.Given all this, here are my concrete recommendations for you, the savvy Spy Trader. First off, Maintain Diversification with a Focus on Quality. In this kind of uncertain environment, spreading your investments across different sectors and asset classes is key. Look for companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and robust business models that can handle economic bumps.Secondly, let's talk Strategic Sector Allocation. While some growth sectors have lagged this year, select technology companies, especially those involved in big trends like AI, might still offer opportunities, but be very selective. On the defensive side, utilities and industrials have shown strong performance this year and can offer stability. Healthcare, leisure, and hospitality also show underlying strength given recent job growth. Be cautious with energy and communication services, as they've been recent laggards.Third, Monitor Inflation and Fed Policy Closely. The path of inflation and the Fed's response will be critical. Be ready for shifts in market sentiment based on new data and any changes to the Fed's interest rate outlook. Higher inflation could mean interest rates stay high, impacting company earnings.Fourth, Consider SafeHaven Assets. With geopolitical tensions rising, a small allocation to things like gold or certain stable currencies could act as a hedge against increased volatility.Finally, Adopt a LongTerm Perspective. Shortterm market swings are probably here to stay for a while. Use these bouts of volatility as opportunities to add quality investments at better prices. Focus on companies with solid fundamentals and a clear growth strategy, as they tend to perform well over the long haul.That's it for today's Spy Trader update. Stay sharp, stay informed, and I'll catch you next time!

The Fed’s Shifting Outlook

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1249.
Welcome back to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the markets. I'm your host, Sparky Spreads, and it's 6 am on Thursday, June 19th, 2025, Pacific time. Hope you're ready for some insights, because while the US stock market is closed today in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day, with both the NYSE and Nasdaq taking a break and reopening tomorrow, Friday, June 20th, there's still plenty to talk about from yesterday and what it means for the days ahead.Let's quickly recap what happened yesterday, Wednesday, June 18th. US stocks ended mixed after the Federal Reserve's big announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped a bit, down 0.1 percent, or about 44 points, closing at 42,171.66. The S&P 500 edged lower by a tiny 0.03 percent to 5,980.87. But the Nasdaq Composite, our techheavy index, managed to claw out a slight gain, up 0.13 percent, or about 25 points, to settle at 19,546.27.The main event, of course, was the Federal Reserve's June 2025 FOMC meeting. The Fed decided to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent for the fourth meeting in a row. Now, here's where it gets interesting: the Fed's projections, what they call the 'dot plot,' still hint at two 25basispoint rate cuts in 2025. However, they've dialed back the outlook for 2026 to only one cut, and more officials, seven out of 19, now expect no rate cuts this year, up from just four in March. The market is still pricing in about a 70 percent chance of a rate cut in September.On the inflation front, the Fed raised its inflation projection for 2025 to 3.0 percent, up from 2.6 percent, and still higher than its 2 percent target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell specifically pointed out that inflation in goods prices is expected to accelerate due to the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs. They also lowered their GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4 percent, a notable drop from the earlier 2.1 percent, suggesting a slowing economy. The unemployment rate is now expected to reach 4.5 percent by yearend.Beyond the Fed, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing IsraelIran conflict, continue to weigh on investor sentiment, raising concerns about potential US involvement and the impact on crude oil prices. President Trump's tariffs, and the unclear inflation impacts from them, were also highlighted as sources of economic uncertainty.Looking at sectors yesterday, seven out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in the red. Technology was the standout performer, helping the Nasdaq close higher, while Energy led the declines. In the broader picture for May and June, technology has been super strong, with megacap tech stocks like NVIDIA seeing substantial gains. Consumer cyclicals also rose, largely thanks to Tesla. On the flip side, real estate and energy sectors remain significantly undervalued. And get this, for the first time in over three years, no new companies were added to the S&P 500 in its quarterly rebalancing, which is a bit of a headscratcher, indicating a period of what's called 'stasis.'As for specific companies, IBM shares rose yesterday to an alltime closing high, up nearly 30 percent since the start of 2025, driven by new software launches for AI and advancements in quantum computing. Korn Ferry shares were up about 10 percent yesterday. Circle Internet Group stock jumped after the Senate passed stablecoin legislation. We also saw news that Robinhood launched new tools to attract traders. And some of our megacap friends like Amazon.com, Alphabet, and Meta have actually seen a shift in their classification from pure growth to partial value in the 2025 Russell Reconstitution, which means they're maturing a bit in their growth profiles.Alright, let's dive into what all this means. The US stock market is definitely in a period of heightened uncertainty. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady, combined with those upward revisions to inflation forecasts and downward revisions to GDP growth, points to a challenging economic environment. While the hint of two rate cuts in 2025 offers some hope, the Fed's overall